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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 4, 2008
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the total number of mortgage applications more than doubled last week as borrowers rushed to take advantage of lower interest rates and when the Fed announced that it would buy GSE debt and MBS.
The index of applications to refinance a home mortgage tripled w/w due to the government's guarantee.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 15-year mortgage plummeted last week to 5.45%, down nearly a full percentage point from the October average. For a 30-year mortgage rates also fell sharply to 5.70%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (>90%) with the rate on 10-year Treasury securities. For an adjustable rate 1-Year mortgage the rate dropped less to 6.74% after having averaged 6.89% during October.
Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home also surged by nearly one half due to lower rates.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage. Moreover, during the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
Today's speech titled Housing, Mortgage Markets, and Foreclosures given by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke can be found here.
MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 11/28/08 | 11/21/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 857.7 | 404.4 | 8.3% | 652.6 | 584.2 | 708.6 |
Purchase | 361.1 | 261.6 | -22.2% | 424.9 | 406.9 | 470.9 |
Refinancing | 3,802.8 | 1,254.0 | 37.7% | 1,997.9 | 1,634.0 | 2,092.3 |