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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 6, 2008
Labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.1% last quarter. That gain was down by two-thirds from the 2Q increase and by half from 1Q. Nonetheless, the y/y gain of 2.0% remained nearly the quickest since 2004. The latest increase about matched Consensus expectations for 3Q.
Output growth fell to a negative 1.7% (+0.3% y/y) which was its weakest since the 2001 recession. Productivity, however, still rose as hours worked were reduced by an even greater degree. They declined 2.7% (-1.7% y/y).
Growth in compensation per hour nevertheless accelerated to 4.7% and that raised the y/y growth to 4.3%.
As a result of weaker productivity and quicker compensation, unit labor cost growth jumped to 3.6%. That was off the recent highs near 4.0% but the trend is one of acceleration.
In the factory sector productivity declined at a 1.0% (+1.1% y/y) rate and that was the second consecutive quarterly decline following a 3.4% increase last year. Output declined 2.6% y/y and hours worked were reduced by an even greater 3.7% y/y. Compensation growth quickened to 5.1%, the fastest since 2006. As a result, unit labor cost growth 6.1% last quarter and by 3.9% y/y, the fastest since late-2006.
The Current State of the U.S. Economy and the Feds Response (With Reference to Irrational Exuberance and Virgils Aeneid) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
Multinationals Make the Most of IT from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
Nonfarm Business Sector (SAAR, %) | 3Q '08 | 2Q '08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Output per Hour | 1.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
Compensation per Hour | 4.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 |
Unit Labor Costs | 3.6 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 |