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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca October 29, 2008
Japan’s IP fell sharply by 3.5% in August, but it has made a substantial rebound in September. Still the trends for IP all are lower, as the sequential growth rates in the table below show. The rebounds by sector in September are only about one-third of the drop made in August.
Year-over-year, Japan’s IP is still rising at a 2.7% pace. Consumer goods output is up by a strong 3.9% while investment goods output is up by 0.5% at an annual rate. The investment goods side is slowing down faster than the consumer goods side.
That trend is in place for the quarter as well. With the September figures just in to complete the quarter, Q3 reveals that overall IP is falling at a 5% pace in MFG. Investment goods output is dropping at a sizeable 13.2% pace while the output of consumer goods is still up at a 4.1% pace. Since consumers are showing weakness around the world in terms of lower confidence and reduced spending and since Japan is a strong exporter of consumer goods this sector is due to get hit much harder.
| Japan Industrial Production Trends | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| m/m % | Saar % | Yr/Yr | Qtr-to-Date | |||||
| seas adjusted | Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | 3-mo | 6-mo | 12-mo | Yr-Ago | % AR |
| Mining & Mfg | 1.2% | -3.5% | 1.3% | -4.1% | -1.3% | -1.9% | 2.7% | -4.8% |
| Total Industry | 1.1% | -3.6% | 1.5% | -4.1% | -1.3% | -2.1% | 3.0% | -4.5% |
| MFG | 1.1% | -3.5% | 1.2% | -4.8% | -1.7% | -2.1% | 2.8% | -5.0% |
| Textiles | -1.4% | -0.2% | -2.9% | -16.6% | -13.7% | -10.6% | -6.8% | -16.2% |
| T-port | 4.4% | -9.8% | 4.0% | -7.9% | -1.2% | -1.3% | 10.4% | -7.4% |
| Product Group | ||||||||
| Consumer Goods | 0.9% | -3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.5% | -2.3% | -0.2% | -7.8% | -3.6% | -1.8% | 3.4% | -5.6% |
| Investment Goods | 4.7% | -5.2% | -0.5% | -5.1% | -2.4% | -4.9% | 0.5% | -13.2% |
| Mining | -4.4% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | -1.4% | 1.8% | 12.4% |
| Electricity & Gas | 2.0% | -7.6% | 6.3% | 0.4% | -0.8% | -3.9% | 8.8% | -1.8% |
