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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 7, 2008
During August, consumer credit outstanding dropped as it never has before. The $7.9 billion m/m decline was by far the largest in the series' postwar history. On a percentage basis, credit outstanding did fall a more moderate 0.3%, but even that represented one of larger declines in the series' history. It is nearly unprecedented for a non-recessionary period.
Over the last three months, growth in consumer credit outstanding averaged just 1.0% (AR). Before August that growth averaged between 3% and 5% after the 2007 gain of 5.8%. The decline in growth was necessitated by less spending on consumer durables. The three month growth in nominal PCE for durable goods during the last three months cycled down to -12.4% from 2.9% positive growth during all of last year.
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of total consumer credit, led the decline in borrowing with a $7.3B drop. Except for one month in early 1977, the dollar drop was unprecedented and on a percentage basis the 0.5% decline was one of the larger ones. On a three month basis, annualized growth fell to zero after a 4.7% rise last year and 3.6% growth during 2006.
Revolving credit outstanding dropped a more modest $0.6B during August. While declines outside of past recessionary periods are rare, they are not unprecedented. And though they didn't exactly throw their credit cards away, consumers were much more frugal using them. Three month growth fell to 2.6%, down by two thirds from the 7.4% growth last year.
These figures are the major input to the Fed's Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector, released quarterly.
The minutes to the latest meeting of the FOMC can be found here.
Consumer Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR) | August | July | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | $-7.9B | $5.2B | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
Revolving | $-0.6B | $4.0B | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% |
Non-revolving | $-7.3B | $1.2B | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% |