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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca October 1, 2008
The PMI details for the e-Zone and the UK makes for dismal reading. After a widespread but small rebound in August the various indices all are lower in September. All readings are below the 50% mark except for Greece. The overall EMU reading resides in the bottom 13% of its range of values since early 2000. Germany is relatively stronger in its 30th percentile, awhile France resides in its 4th percentile. The UK is at its weakest point for that same period.
Slow growth and financial turmoil have been slow to grip the e-Zone or at least slow to be revealed. Overnight VDMA’s engineering orders for Germany posted another drop and the UK services sector came up dead flat in Q3. Surprisingly retail sales in Germany rose sharply after two months of drops and auto sales in France rose. Overall the EMU unemployment rate did edge up although Germany has continued to show the number of unemployed still dropping.
There is little in the way of truly mixed data for Europe. For the most part it is simply weak and getting weaker. The spots of strength in the data today seem to be counter point anomalies. With so much weakness elsewhere in key reports as well as in the day’s MFG report from Markit, EMU seems clearly and firmly on the path to economic contraction.
NTC MFG Indices | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | 3Mo | 6Mo | 12Mo | Percentile* | |
Euro Area | 44.97 | 47.55 | 47.38 | 46.63 | 48.40 | 50.37 | 12.1% |
Germany | 47.36 | 49.68 | 50.90 | 49.31 | 51.28 | 52.55 | 30.5% |
France | 42.97 | 45.79 | 47.05 | 45.27 | 47.94 | 50.35 | 4.2% |
Italy | 44.42 | 46.77 | 45.32 | 45.50 | 46.62 | 48.67 | 7.4% |
Spain | 38.32 | 42.40 | 39.20 | 39.97 | 41.59 | 45.19 | 0.0% |
Austria | 46.01 | 48.61 | 46.97 | 47.20 | 48.26 | 50.87 | 17.3% |
Greece | 50.79 | 52.46 | 51.63 | 51.63 | 52.81 | 52.97 | 33.1% |
Ireland | 43.70 | 44.88 | 43.39 | 43.99 | 44.43 | 46.91 | 2.5% |
Netherlands | 48.30 | 49.82 | 47.99 | 48.70 | 50.02 | 51.94 | 33.6% |
European Union | |||||||
UK | 40.97 | 45.33 | 44.11 | 43.47 | 45.95 | 49.05 | 0.0% |
*Percentile is over range since March 2000 |