Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Albania: HICP (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca September 24, 2008
The IFO sector readings are plunging and the overall indices are weak as well. In September the business expectations index remains in the lower 13 percentile of its range. The current situation is mid range at the 51st percentile. But sector readings are deteriorating with manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing falling especially sharply in just the past few months.
Moreover, all of euro is beginning to show this same sort of malaise. Yesterday the Bank of Belgium index fell from 5.9 in August to14.4 in September. Italian business confidence released today registered its lowest reading in seven years. French business confidence, another morning release, fell to its lowest mark in over five years.
The German IFO reading is only the lowest in three years. But this year’s low in expectations sub index is the lowest since 1993. With the recent surge in oil prices and mini jump in the euro Europe has a lot on its plate to worry about. If Europe escapes recession it will be nothing short of a miracle.
| Summary of IFO Sector Diffusion readings: CLIMATE | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLIMATE Sum | Current | Last Mo | Since Jan 1991* | |||||
| Sep-08 | Aug-08 | Average | Median | Max | Min | Range | % range | |
| All Sectors | -14.8 | -11.1 | -6.6 | -9.8 | 16.8 | -26.3 | 43.1 | 26.7% |
| MFG | -11.6 | -6.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 27.2 | -22.6 | 49.8 | 22.1% |
| Construction | -25.2 | -26.4 | -32.8 | -38.8 | -7.9 | -50.5 | 42.6 | 59.4% |
| Wholesale | -10.3 | -5.5 | -9.9 | -14.5 | 23.5 | -39.4 | 62.9 | 46.3% |
| Retail | -24.0 | -21.5 | -20.3 | -20.5 | 1.2 | -39.6 | 40.8 | 38.2% |
| Services | 8.3 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 28.5 | -15.7 | 44.2 | 54.3% |
| * May 2001 for Services | ||||||||
