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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 7, 2008
The National Association of Realtors reported that the June level of pending sales of existing homes rose 5.3%. That reversed the 4.9% decline during May which was unrevised. The latest increase compared to Consensus expectations for a 1.0% drop.
These figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The regional sales figures indicated that sales in the South recovered all of their May decline with a 9.3% increase while sales in the Northeast nearly recovered two months of decline with a 3.4% rise. Sales in the Midwest posted a weak 1.3% rise on the heels of a 6.0% May drop and sales in the West continued to recover. They posted a 4.6% gain to the highest level in twelve months.
The Realtors association indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market & available for sale ticked up a not seasonally adjusted 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after a 1.5% decline during May.
At the current sales rate there was an 11.1 months' supply of homes on the market versus an 8.9 months' average during all of last year, a 6.5 months' supply in 2006 and a 4.5 months' supply in 2005.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market are in the REALTOR database.
Rational Real Estate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond can be found here.
Pending Home Sales (2001=100) | June | May | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 89.0 | 84.5 | -12.2% | 95.7 | 112.1 | 124.3 |
Northeast | 79.6 | 77.0 | -15.4 | 85.6 | 98.5 | 108.3 |
Midwest | 79.6 | 78.6 | -13.3 | 89.6 | 102.0 | 116.4 |
South | 92.4 | 84.5 | -16.6 | 107.3 | 127.3 | 134.8 |
West | 101.0 | 96.6 | -1.8 | 92.1 | 109.5 | 128.6 |