Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Albania: HICP (Apr)
- South Africa: Wholesale Sales, Export & Import Indexes (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca August 1, 2008
Add German retail sales trends to the list of items turning out more negative prospects for the e-Zone. Retail sales ex-autos as well as real retail sales ex autos saw sales drop by 1.4% month-to-month in June of 2008. Over three-months and six-months and 12-months retail ex-auto retail sales are declining.
In the current quarter real retail sales excluding autos are falling at a sharp 3.8% annual rate.
All the major components of retail sales are showing declines in 2008-Q2 compared to Q1. The industrial data are slowing and now the consumer side data are slowing as well. There does not appear to be a part of the economy prepared to step up and make up for the weakness elsewhere. Europe is slipping. Germany is leading the way.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Jun-08 | May-08 | Apr-08 | 3-MO | 6-MO | 12-MO | YrAgo | Qtr Saar |
| Retaill Ex auto | -1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | -2.8% | -1.6% |
| Food Bev & Tobacco | 1.0% | -1.8% | -0.3% | -4.0% | 6.9% | 1.2% | -3.4% | -3.2% |
| Clothing footwear | -9.6% | 14.3% | -0.3% | 12.8% | 0.2% | -1.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail Ex auto | -1.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.8% | -3.1% | -3.8% |
