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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Up Modestly
by Tom Moeller July 22, 2008

Chain store sales, as reported by the International Council of Shopping Centers, ticked a modest 0.1% last week. The uptick followed like moves during each of the prior three weeks and the level of sales in July is up modestly from both the June and the May averages.

During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

During the latest week, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.2% (-2.5% y/y) after a 1.5% pop during the week prior.

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) 07/19/08 07/12/08 Y/Y 2007 2006 2005
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 493.4 492.7 2.5% 2.8% 3.3% 3.6%
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