Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
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- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca June 13, 2008
The Bank of France business indicator fell to 97 from 100.4 in May. After seeing the result the Bank of France cut its growth estimate for GDP to +0.2% down from +0.3% previously for the Q/Q gain. In the latest month production was weak. The survey respondents rated it in the bottom one percent of all production ratings since 1988. Even capital equipment was rated as low in the month.
The production outlook fared better with roughly mid-range rankings. Capital goods and consumer goods were particularly strong, above their range mid-points. The consumer goods ranking was in the top 14% of its historic range – a surprisingly strong result.
Demand was rated as solid overall with overall order books assessed as being above their range point in the top 40% of their range. But FOREIGN order books were assessed as very low, in the bottom 4% of its range.
New orders are mixed but weak. Total orders are in the bottom 6% of their range. Capital goods new orders were in the bottom quarter of their range. Consumer goods were in the 47th range percentile, nearly at neutral.
Stocks of goods on hand are mid range or higher as for capital goods and autos. Capacity use is rated as low, a bottom third of range response. Hiring, last month, was in the 33rd percentile of its range; the outlook is still much stronger, in its 80th percentile.
About the ranking percentiles: To derive the ranking percentiles we rank the various components from Jan 1988 to date then express the rank as a percentile of the total with 10% being strong and zero % weak. Ranking percentiles are a bit more useful than range percentiles because they place an observation in a ranking queue instead of being influenced by only the range extremes of high and low as with range percentiles. A bottom 23.7% ranking is a ranking is in the bottom twenty-three percent (bottom quarter of the range) of all readings since 1988.
Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since Jan-87 | Ranking | |||||
May-08 | Apr-08 | Mar-08 | 12-MO AVERAGE | Average | Percentile | |
Production-latest mo | ||||||
Total Industry | -12.41 | 2.44 | -0.22 | 4 | 7 | 0.8% |
Semi-Finished | -15.57 | 7.01 | -4.1 | 4 | 6 | 0.8% |
Capital | -9.09 | 11.17 | 1.36 | 8 | 7 | 4.5% |
Auto | -29.94 | -13.88 | -3.31 | -4 | 7 | 6.1% |
Consumer | -6.5 | 0.87 | 3.67 | 7 | 8 | 2.9% |
Agricultural & Food | 0.32 | -8.28 | 1.94 | 4 | 10 | 9.8% |
Production Outlook | ||||||
Total Industry | 14.51 | 6.02 | 14.13 | 15 | 15 | 43.7% |
Semi-Finished | 12.55 | 3.55 | 10.84 | 14 | 13 | 46.1% |
Capital | 18.86 | 13.35 | 19.97 | 20 | 17 | 50.2% |
Auto | 16.63 | 12.77 | 14.39 | 17 | 15 | 47.3% |
Consumer | 22.95 | -7.77 | 16.03 | 12 | 17 | 86.9% |
Agric&Food | 3.54 | 8.23 | 9.49 | 13 | 17 | 0.8% |
Demand | ||||||
Overall order books | 12.1 | 16.01 | 17.7 | 24 | 5 | 59.2% |
Foreign Orders | -7.36 | 10.21 | 2.1 | 8 | 8 | 4.5% |
New Orders | ||||||
Total Industry | -4.65 | 8.46 | 1.59 | 8 | 9 | 6.1% |
Semi-Finished | -8.92 | 0.9 | -0.27 | 6 | 7 | 9.0% |
Capital | 3.69 | 14.81 | 5.4 | 10 | 9 | 25.7% |
Auto | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Consumer | 10.63 | 9.18 | 7.8 | 13 | 11 | 47.8% |
Agric&Food | -3.13 | -6.77 | -0.44 | 5 | 11 | 5.7% |
Stocks: Finished Gds | ||||||
Total Industry | -1.72 | 0.71 | 0.66 | -2 | -2 | 48.6% |
Semi-Finished | -4.82 | -1.43 | -2.28 | -2 | -2 | 20.4% |
Capital | -1.29 | -0.12 | -3.97 | -2 | -3 | 64.9% |
Auto | 4.85 | 10.82 | 17.42 | -2 | -3 | 75.1% |
Consumer | 0.19 | 1.23 | 2.19 | -1 | 0 | 44.9% |
Agricultural & Food | -0.21 | 12.17 | 0.33 | 1 | 0 | 46.1% |
Capacity Utilization | 82.04 | 83 | 82.99 | 83 | 83 | 31.8% |
Hiring | ||||||
Latest Mo | -4.39 | -0.55 | -2.58 | -1 | -1 | 33.5% |
Outlook | -3.38 | -2.96 | -3.88 | -2 | -3 | 80.8% |
Industry Sentiment Index | 96.65 | 100.4 | 103.91 | 105 | 106 | 23.7% |
Ranges, percentiles since January of 1988 |