Recent Updates
- Canada: Employment Insurance (Mar), Industrial Production & Raw Material Prices (Apr)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley June 9, 2008
In its assessment of the April, composite leading, lagging and coincident indicators Japan's Cabinet Office remarked that the indicators were "signaling a possible turning point." The first chart, in which we plot the composite indexes for the last 22 years and the Japanese recessions in that period, appears to bear out the Cabinet Office's assessment.
The May survey of the Economy Watchers was also released today. The Economy Watchers have been reducing their appraisals of current and future conditions since early 2006 and their appraisals are now at levels reached in the last recession as can be seen in the second chart.
| JAPAN | May 08 |
Apr 08 |
May 07 |
M/M CHG |
Y/Y CHG |
2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy Watchers Survey | ||||||||
| Current Conditions | 32.1 | 35.5 | 46.8 | -9.58 | -31.41 | 44.9 | 51.4 | 44.9 |
| Future Conditions | 35.1 | 36.1 | 50.0 | -2.77 | -29.80 | 46.9 | 52.9 | 51.5 |
| Economic Indicators( 2005=100) | Apr 08 |
Mar 08 |
Apr 07 |
M/M CHG |
Y/Y CHG |
2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Leading | 92.8 | 90.8 | 98.4 | 2.20 | -5.69 | 97.4 | 102.4 | 100.0 |
| Coincident | 101.7 | 102.4 | 104.4 | -0.68 | -2.59 | 104.8 | 103.8 | 100.0 |
| Lagging | 103.0 | 104.9 | 106.9 | -1.81 | -3.65 | 105.7 | 104.8 | 100.0 |
