Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Albania: HICP (Apr)
- South Africa: Wholesale Sales, Export & Import Indexes (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert BruscaJune 3, 2008
GDP growth was revised up from a quarterly gain of 0.7% to a
gain of 0.8% in 2008-Q1. Still, Yr/Yr growth is tailing off to its
lowest pace since end 2005. Myriad domestic indicators and surveys
point to further slowing ahead. Private consumption growth has steeped
down to just over 1%. Last quarter public consumption stepped down too-
but it’s too soon to call that a trend. Capital spending spurted
quarter-to-quarter but has slowed a bit Yr/Yr. Surveys on this have
been mixed. Net exports are less of a driver of growth, as imports have
picked up and export growth now roughly paces with them. Domestic
demand shows signs of slowing. This is clearly the result of damped
consumption and step back of uncertain duration in government spending
and mixed trends for investment spending.
| European GDP EU-15 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | Capital Formation | Trade Domestic | ||||||||
| GDP | Private | Public | Total | X Housing |
Housing | X-M: Bil E |
Exports | Imports | Demand | |
| % change Q/Q; X-M is Q/Q change in Blns of euros | ||||||||||
| Q1-08 | 3.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 11.0% | #N/A | #N/A | 1.0 | 7.8% | 7.6% | 3.1% |
| Q4-07 | 1.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 2.0% | 3.6% | -2.6% | 4.9 | 1.2% | -1.1% | 0.3% |
| Q3-07 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.1% | -0.7 | 9.3% | 9.9% | 2.8% |
| Q2-07 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | -5.4% | -5.5% | -4.9% | 5.6 | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| % change Yr/Yr; X-M is Yr/Yr change in Gap in Blns of euros | ||||||||||
| Q1-08 | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | #N/A | #N/A | 10.9 | 5.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Q4-07 | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 0.1% | 4.4 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Q3-07 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 9.9 | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Q2-07 | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 6.6 | 5.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| 5-Yrs | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.6% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 6.0% | 5.7% | 2.0% |
