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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 15, 2008
Industrial production fell a sharp 0.7% last month after a little revised increase of 0.2% during March. The decline was close to the largest since September 2005 and it was more than double Consensus expectations for a 0.3% drop.
Factory output fell a slightly sharper 0.8% after no change during March. Output has now fallen 1.8% since its peak in July of 2007 and the three month rate change was a negative 5.8% (AR).
Production in the high tech sector continued strong and rose 1.0% (24.5% y/y) while the three month rate of change amounted to 23.5%. Production of computers & office equipment rose a lesser 0.5% and three month growth totaled 9.8% (AR). Output of communications equipment rose an even stronger 2.1%. The three month rate of growth was 27.5%.
The trend in output outside the high tech sector has been decidedly different and one of weakness. Less high tech, factory output fell 0.9% last month and three month output growth fell to -7.6% (AR). Output of motor vehicles & parts has been notably weak and fell 8.2% last month, at a -43.5% annual rate during the last three months. Furniture output also fell 0.7% last month and at a hard 10.2% rate during the last three. Electrical equipment fell 0.8% during April and at a 2.6% rate during the last three months. Machinery output also was quite weak and fell 1.7% and at a three month rate of -9.1%
In the nondurables area the picture is little better. Output ticked down 0.1% last month and at a 3.3% rate during the last three. Though apparel output rose 0.1% last month it followed sharp declines during the prior three. Three month annual growth was -7.0%. Paper output has been falling at an 8.9% rate during the last three months and chemical output is off at a 3.4% rate.
Capacity utilization fell sharply to 79.7% during April but utilization in the factory sector slipped even further to 77.5%, its lowest also since late 2004. Utilization rates in the durables industries outside of high tech were notably weak, exemplified by the machinery industry where utilization fell to 74.6% versus 81% nearly two years ago. Overall capacity grew 1.8% during the last year and 2.0% in the factory sector. Less high tech, factory capacity grew a lower 0.9% over the last year.
Risk Management in Financial Institutions is today's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available here.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (SA) | April | March | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | -0.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.3 |
Manufacturing | -0.8 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Utilities | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 3.3 | -0.6 | 2.1 |