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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 13, 2008
U.S. retail sales fell an expected 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.2% March increase. These latest two months' sales point up the recent weakness in consumer spending. The April sales level was down 0.8% from its peak last November. On a three month basis overall retail sales were down 2.0% (AR).
Lower sales of motor vehicles & parts account for much of that weakness. A 2.8% (-7.3% y/y) April decline was the sixth drop in the last seven months and it mirrored the 4.3% m/m decline in unit vehicle sales last month.
Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.5% and the rise exceeded expectations for a 0.2% gain. That gain followed a revised 0.4% March increase which was revised up from the 0.2% advance reported initially.
Lower sales at gasoline service stations also accounted for some of last month's weakness in overall retail spending. They fell 0.4% (+16.3% y/y) after a 1.6% March jump. The sales decline occurred as the pump price of gasoline rose 6.6% m/m. Retail sales less gasoline & autos rose 0.6% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.2% March gain that was revised up from no change. On a three month basis these sales improved to a 3.2% rate of growth from a low of -1.0% this past February.
Sales of discretionary items improved. Furniture, home furnishings & appliance store sales finally rose, by 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) after four consecutive months of flat or lower sales. The gain was due to a 1.4% (4.0% y/y) jump in sales of electronics & appliances. Sales of furniture & home furnishings continued to languish, however, and ticked up just 0.1% (-5.1% y/y). Apparel store sales rose 0.7% (3.0% y/y) following a similar gain in March that was revised up from a 0.5% decline reported initially. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.5% (4.2% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick that was revised up from a sharp 0.6% decline reported last month.
Building materials & garden equipment sales surged 1.9% (-2.0% y/y) and recouped the 1.5% decline during March.
April sales of nonstore retailers (internet & catalogue) fell slightly m/m (+2.4% y/y) after a 0.5% March increase, but that increase was revised down from the 2.1% surge reported initially.
Restaurant and drinking places sales rose 0.9% (4.2% y/y) last month.
Liquidity Provision by the Federal Reserve is today's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it can be found here
April | March | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.2% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% |
Excluding Autos | 0.5% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% |
Less Gasoline | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% |