Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
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- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 13, 2008
Total business inventories grew just 0.1% during March. The gain was less than the expected 0.4% rise and the 0.5% February increase was little revised. The annualized three month growth in inventories backed off slightly to 6.6% from the elevated 8.5% growth rate in February.
Retail inventories fell 0.5% as the three month growth rate went negative at -0.9%. Inventories of motor vehicle & parts fell at a 0.9% rate during the last three months due to production cutbacks. Outside of autos, however, retail inventories plunged 0.4% in March and at a 1.0% rate during the last three months, the first decline since 2003.
The industry detail in the retail sector indicated that furniture inventories fell at an annual rate of 7.0% during the last three months. Clothing & accessory store inventories also dropped hard at a 7.9% rate during that period. General merchandise stores' inventories finally fell at a 2.9% rate due to the 1.1% cutback in March.
Factory inventories increased 0.9% following the upwardly revised 0.7% February increase. Higher oil prices continued to drive the increase and they rose 5.3%, 89.9% at an annual rate over the last three months. But elsewhere accumulation also has been strong. Excluding petroleum, factory inventories rose at a 7.9% rate over the last three months versus 5.9% growth during 4Q and 1.7% in 3Q.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.1% after the 0.9% February surge. Less the strong gains in petroleum inventories, accumulation still has been very firm at a 9.9% rate over the last three months after 4.9% growth last year.
Total business sales rose 1.0% and made all of the prior month's decline. Three month growth recovered to 5.5% after having gone negative in February. The I/S ratio fell slightly to 1.27 in March. That's the average for the year to date and it is equal to all of 2007.
Business Inventories | March | February | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.1% | 0.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% |
Retail | -0.5% | -0.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
Retail excl. Auto | -0.4% | -0.2% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% |
Wholesale | -0.1% | 0.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
Manufacturing | 0.9% | 0.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 8.9% |