Recent Updates
- Canada: Employment Insurance (Mar), Industrial Production & Raw Material Prices (Apr)
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca April 16, 2008
Euro Area inflation was revised higher in March and now is
expanding at a 3.6% annual rate, not quite as fast as the universe, but
fast enough to create a gnashing of teeth at the ECB. Yesterday,
Juergen Stark of the ECB said that current policy may not be enough to
hold medium term prices stability in line. Among the four largest EMU
economies, core inflation is over the 2% inflation ceiling, ranging
from a 2.4% yr/yr pace in Germany to a 3.5% pace in Spain. France an
Italy are seeing their respective core inflation rates accelerated from
12 months, to 6 months to, 3 months. Now those are not good trends at
all. Germany’s core inflation acceleration broke off from six months to
three months, as the three month rate has dropped back to 1.9%. In
Spain the three month rate fell back to 3.1% from 4.2% over six months.
Within EMU as a whole core inflation is still accelerating,
with the 3-month pace up to 3.4%.
| Trends in HICP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % mo/mo | % saar | ||||||
| Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Yr Ago | |
| EMU-13 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.0% |
| Core | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Goods | 1.4% | 0.3% | -0.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.7% |
| Services | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| HICP | |||||||
| Germany | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| France | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Italy | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Spain | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Core excl Food, Energy and Alcohol | |||||||
| Germany | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| France | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Italy | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| Spain | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
