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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 28, 2008
Nominal personal income grew 0.5% last month and beat Consensus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The rise lifted the three-month growth in income to 4.8%, its best since September.
Wage & salary income moderated a bit and rose 0.3% after January's 0.5% increase. Factory sector wages rose 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) and wages & salaries in the private service-providing industries rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y). That y/y increase is much reduced from the 6.4% gain last year as well as from the 6.8% 2006 rise. Wages in the government sector rose a strong 0.5% (5.1% y/y) but here the story is one of acceleration after a 4.6% rise last year and a 4.1% 2006 increase.
Lower interest rates caused the fifth straight monthly decline in interest income (+3.6% y/y). That y/y increase was less than one third the rate of gain at the end of 2005. Dividend income rose another firm 0.6% (11.5% y/y), a double digit rate of gain that is down somewhat from its peak 16.3% in 2006.
Disposable personal income growth improved last month to 0.5% which was its best increase since last August. The rise followed 0.4% gains during the prior two months. It raised the thee month growth rate to 5.5% (AR). Adjusted for prices, which moderated, real disposable income rose 0.3% and the three month growth rate picked up to 2.6%.
Personal consumption expenditures rose just the expected 0.1%. Real personal consumption expenditures were flat. That lowered the three-month growth rate to 0.3%, its worst since October 2005.
Real spending on discretionary items continued weak. Motor vehicle & parts purchases did rise 0.3% but three month growth fell to -7.4%. Real spending on household furniture & appliances also rose 0.3%, as it did in January, but three month growth fell to -2.1%. Real spending on apparel rose 1.4% however because of a sharp decline in December, three month growth improved only to -1.5%. These and other detailed spending figures are available in Haver's USNA database.
The PCE chain price index rose just 0.1% as energy prices fell 1.9%. The core PCE price index matched expectations and rose just 0.1%. The three month growth in prices fell to 2.1%, down from the three month gains of 2.7% registered last year.
The personal savings rate improved somewhat to all of 0.3% from the negative 0.1% during January.
Yesterday's speech by Fed GovernorFrederic S. Mishkin on inflation titled Comfort Zones, Shmumfort Zones can be found here.
Disposition of Personal Income (%) | February | January | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 5.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 |
Personal Consumption | 0.1 | 0.4 | 5.1% | 5.5 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
Saving Rate | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.9 (Feb. 07) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Less food & energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |