Recent Updates
- Mexico: Manufacturing Employment (Mar)
- Latvia: Labor Force Statistics (Apr)
- UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey (May)
- Albania: HICP (Apr)
- South Africa: Wholesale Sales, Export & Import Indexes (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2008
The US current account deficit fell last quarter to $172.9 billion from $177.4 billion in Q3. The Q4 deficit was shallower than Consensus expectations for a deficit of $184 billion.
The latest deficit totaled 4.9% of GDP and it peaked as a percentage of GDP nearly two years ago at 6.8% in Q4 2005.
That shrinkage occurred even though the deficit on merchandise trade deepened. Higher oil prices lifted imports and the goods deficit grew to $208.1B from Q3's revised deficit of $200.5B. It was the deepest deficit in just over a year. During the last year only, however, exports grew 14.2% and outpaced import growth of 9.8%.
The effects of the lower U.S. dollar and the strength of foreign economies versus the U.S. is apparent greatest in the surplus in services trade which grew to a record surplus of $30.2B from $28.0B in 3Q. Exports of services during the last year grew 15.2%. Travel exports grew 21.4% y/y and passenger fares were up 19.2%. Imports grew a slower 11.5% due to moderate 7.3% growth in travel and 9.3% growth in passenger fares.
The trade surplus on earned income grew to $33.0B as the unilateral transfers deficit deepened to 28.1B.
Friedman and Taylor on Monetary Policy Rules: A Comparison from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
US Balance of Payments, Bil.$, SA | 4Q '07 | Q3 '07 | Year Ago | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Bil.) | -172.9 | -177.4 | -187.9 | -738.6 | -811.5 | -754.8 |
Deficit % of GDP | -4.9 | -5.1 | -5.6 | -5.3 | -6.2 | -6.1 |
Balance on Goods ($ Bil.) | -208.1 | -200.5 | -200.3 | -815.4 | -838.3 | -787.1 |
Exports | 2.4% | 6.7% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 10.8% |
Imports | 2.9% | 2.9% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 10.7% | 12.9% |
Balance on Private Services ($ Bil.) | 30.2 | 28.0 | 23.4 | 106.9 | 79.8 | 72.8 |
Exports | 4.4% | 4.9% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% |
Imports | 3.4% | 3.7% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% |
Balance on Income ($ Bil.) | 33.0 | 21.3 | 9.7 | 74.3 | 36.6 | 48.1 |
Unilateral Transfers ($ Bil.) | -28.1 | -26.2 | -20.7 | -104.4 | -89.6 | -88.5 |