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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 8, 2008
At an annual rate consumer credit grew 2.2% during December, down sharply from the revised 8.5% jump in November. For all of last year, however, credit growth picked up slightly to 5.5% from 4.5% in 2006. In fact growth last year was the quickest since 2004. (The annual rates of growth equal the Dec/Dec percent because the figures are "end of period.")
Continuing to indicate the slowdown in consumer spending was the three month change in credit. It fell to 4.4% which was nearly half the growth rate of this past August.The credit slowdown has been accompanied by slower three-month growth in real consumer spending on durable goods, to -2.8% thru December versus +4.8% for all of last year.
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of the total, grew a slower 1.8% in December versus November. The three month growth rate remained quite low at 1.5% versus a peak of 7.7% in August.
Growth in revolving credit also slowed considerably to 2.7% (AR) in December from 14.7% in November. That slowdown left the three month growth rate at a somewhat firm 9.6%.
These figures are the major input to the Fed's Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector, released quarterly.
The Recession Dating Procedure from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) can be found here.
Consumer Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR) | December | November | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 2.2% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
Revolving | 2.7 | 14.7 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 |
Non-revolving | 1.8 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.9 |