Recent Updates
- Macao: MICE Industry (Q1)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca January 9, 2008
So much for strong German orders…. there is no carry over to
the consumer. Retail sales in Germany are a disaster. We are 10 months
away from the phase in of the VAT hike in January of 2007. That is why
the Yr/Yr decline is still so severe on the chart – the base is a pre
VAT base in Nov of 2006. It is not really not comparable to the 3-Mo
and the 6-Mo results which are both with base periods that are well
beyond the VAT hike period. Still 3-Mo and 6-Mo real retail sales
growth rates are weaker that their 12-month pace. This is not a good
sign.
Two months into Q4 German real retail sales (ex autos) are
declining at an 8.2% annual rate. Nominal clothing and footwear
spending is off in the quarter at a 23% rate. November sales were a
disaster.
| German Real and Nominal Retail Sales | New Qtr | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nominal | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | Sep-07 | 3-Mo | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | Year Ago | SAAR |
| Retail excl Auto | -0.6% | -1.9% | 1.1% | -5.7% | -1.5% | -1.7% | 6.1% | -8.2% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts | #N/A | 0.2% | -2.0% | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 21.0% | #N/A |
| Food Beverages & Tobacco | -2.3% | 0.1% | 1.4% | -3.2% | -2.0% | 0.2% | 3.2% | -1.4% |
| Clothing footwear | -0.8% | -8.3% | 5.6% | -15.1% | 1.1% | -1.2% | 5.7% | -23.0% |
| Real | ||||||||
| Retail excl Auto | -1.3% | -2.3% | 0.8% | -10.7% | -4.6% | -3.8% | 5.6% | -12.6% |
