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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Louise Curley January 7, 2087
With the price of oil and the euro continuing to climb and financial markets continuing to be unsettled, it is not surprising that economic sentiment among Europeans continues to weaken. For the 27 countries in the European Union, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell 0.4% from 107.5 in November to 107.1 in December and was 4.7% below December, 2006. For the 13 countries in the Euro Area, the ESI fell only 0.1% in December to 104.7 from 104.8 in November (actually less than the consensus estimate) and was 4.6% below December 2006.
Although there are measures of economic sentiment for the EU 27 and the EA13, it is not possible to derive measures for the non EA as whole. However since sentiment in the EU 27 has generally been higher than that in the EA13, (as can be seen in the first chart) it can be inferred that sentiment in, at least, some of the non EA countries has been higher than those in the EA. The second chart showing selected countries in the EA--France, Germany and Italy--and the third chart, selected countries in the non EA--Sweden, United Kingdom, Poland and Latvia illustrate the point.
Economic Sentiment Indicators (Long Term Average =100) | Dec 07 | Nov 07 | Dec 06 | M/M %Chg | Y/Y %Chg | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EU 27 | 107.1 | 107.5 | 112.4 | -0.37 | -4.72 | 111.8 | 108.3 | 99.4 |
EA 13 | 104.7 | 104.8 | 109.8 | -0.10 | -4.62 | 109.0 | 106.9 | 97.9 |
Germany | 105.9 | 106.2 | 108.8 | -0.28 | -2.67 | 109.2 | 105.9 | 95.1 |
France | 109.3 | 110.2 | 108.6 | -0.82 | 0.64 | 110.6 | 106.9 | 103.2 |
Italy | 100.2 | 97.9 | 108.9 | 2.35 | -8.79 | 105.6 | 108.6 | 97.9 |
United Kingdom | 106.6 | 107.8 | 110.8 | -1.11 | -3.79 | 110.7 | 107.0 | 99.7 |
Sweden | 114.8 | 114.6 | 116.8 | 0.17 | -1.71 | 119.3 | 114.2 | 105.3 |
Poland | 133.4 | 134.0 | 126.2 | -0.45 | 5.71 | 133.3 | 116.0 | 105.0 |
Latvia | 108.1 | 109.2 | 118.9 | -1.01 | -9.08 | 114.8 | 114.7 | 109.7 |