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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 3, 2008
The ADP National Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payroll growth deteriorated to 40,000 during December after a downwardly revised 173,000 November rise.The increase was the weakest since this past August.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure for December will be published tomorrow.Last month, the 173,000 gain ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was followed by a 64,000 rise in private nonfarm payrolls.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP sub-index for large payrolls tanked and fell 35,000, reversing all of the November rise.
For medium sized payrolls, the increase fell to 9,000 which was the weakest rise since mid-2003.
The sub-index for small payrolls fell back from the firmer gain in November payrolls and rose a still respectable 66,000.
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
[email protected] | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg.) | 40,000 | 173,000 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% |