Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 14, 2007
The consumer price index (CPI-U) rose 0.8% last month due to the surge in energy prices. The gain was the quickest since September of 2005, a month when higher energy prices similarly raised the index.A 0.6% rise in the November CPI had been expected by a Consensus of economists. The y/y gain in prices of 4.3% was its quickest since June of last year.
Core consumer price inflation picked up slightly to 0.3% after five months of 0.2% increase. A 0.2% gain was the general expectation. The y/y increase of 2.3% was its quickest in six months and the three month rise, to 2.6% (AR), has shown acceleration this year.
Energy prices soared 5.7%, the fastest rise since a 5.9% increase during March of this year. Those two gains were the quickest since an 11.8% surge in 2005. That was subsequently followed by m/m declines and/or more moderate gains in energy prices. Gasoline prices jumped 9.3% (37.1% y/y) last month but the weekly data already indicate a slight m/m decline in December. Prices for fuel oil & other fuels surged 11.9% (28.4% y/y) but natural gas & electricity prices rose just 0.7% (4.4% y/y).
Food & beverage prices rose 0.3% (4.7% y/y) but that was enough to lift the y/y increase to its fastest since 1991. Prices of dairy products were notably strong and rose 0.6% (14.0% y/y). Prices for fruits & vegetable jumped 1.6% (4.5% y/y) but prices for meats, poultry & fish fell 0.1% (5.4% y/y).
Core goods prices rose 0.2% after slight declines during each of the prior three months. Apparel prices surged 0.8% (-0.4% y/y) after having been unchanged in October. New & used motor vehicle prices were unchanged (-0.4% y/y) after two months of decline. Prices of household furnishings & operation rose a slight 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) after four straight months of decline.Tobacco prices increased 0.2% (8.2% y/y) for the second month but the y/y gain was its strongest since early 2003. The core CPI less tobacco rose 0.3% (2.3%).
Core services prices rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y). Shelter prices increased 0.3% (3.1% y/y) and that y/y change was its slowest since early this year. Owners equivalent rent of primary residence, a measure not equivalent to other house price measures, rose 0.3%, reducing the y/y gain to 2.8% y/y. Since a low several months ago of 1.8%, the three month change has picked up to 3.4%, its firmest since January. Public transportation prices rose 1.8% (6.1% y/y) and medical care services prices rose 0.3% (5.8% y/y). Education service prices rose 0.6% (5.5% y/y) after a firm 0.7% October gain but communication prices fell (-0.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y) but the core measure was unchanged. This latter measure is similar to the core PCE price index but its treatment of housing price differs
A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
Consumer Price Index | November | October | September | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2% | -0.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Energy | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 21.3% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 10.8% |
Food & Beverages | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |