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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 2, 2007
Nonfarm payrolls increased 166,000 last month. The gain was double the rise expected by the consensus of economists, although the increase in September jobs was revised slightly downward to 96,000 from the 110,000 reported last month.
An increase in private service sector jobs in October added nearly all of the heft to last month's job gain. The increase of 154,000 was provided by a 65,000 (2.1% y/y) rise in professional & business service jobs and a 7,500 (3.1% y/y) rise in jobs in the education sector. Additionally, 35,100 (3.2% y/y) jobs were added in the health care sector and the leisure industry added 56,000 (3.3% y/y) workers. These gains offset weak or negative growth elsewhere in service sector jobs.
In what is perhaps a positive sign for future growth in jobs, employment in the temporary help industry rose 20,200 (-1.6% y/y) and offset all of the prior month's decline.
Employment in the government sector also rose a respectable 36,000 (1.0% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls fell another 21,000, adding to a decline that began early last year. Again, these declines are at odds with the recent ISM reports of job growth in manufacturing. Construction employment fell by 5,000 last month after a 14,000 worker decline during September.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% and the prior month's gain was revised down slightly. Factory sector earnings rose 0.1% (2.9% y/y) and private service-providing earnings rose 0.2% (3.9% y/y).
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.7% last month. Household employment fell 250,000 (+0.5% y/y) and offset about half of the prior month's surge while the labor force fell 211,000 (+1.8% y/y) after jumping 573,000 in September. The labor force participation rate fell slightly to 65.9% and that was down from 66.2% during all of last year.
Employment : 000s | October | September | August | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 166 | 96 | 93 | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
Previous | -- | 110 | 93 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Manufacturing | -21 | -17 | -45 | -1.4% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
Construction | -5 | -14 | -29 | -1.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.9 (Oct '06) | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
Unemployment Rate | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% (Oct '06) | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% |