Recent Updates
- US: New Residential Sales with Revisions (Apr)
- Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, UK, US (May)
- UK: Public Finance (Apr), CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May)
- Mexico: Construction (Mar), SemiMonthly CPI (May)
- Brazil: IPCA-15 (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone October 31, 2007
The employment cost index slowed to an 0.8% advance for private industry workers in Q3, compared to 0.9% in Q2 and a Consensus forecast of 0.9%.
Wage and salary growth held at the 0.8% quarterly pace seen in Q2, with the year/year growth also at Q2's amount, 3.4%. Wages account for roughly 70% of the compensation index. The largest recent increase was 1.1% in Q1, driven by outsized increases in several industries.
Benefit costs dropped back from Q2's 1.1% to 0.8%; this put the year/year increase at 2.4%. For the first three quarters this year, the year/year growth rates are the lowest since 1998. This is at least in part due to a more moderate rise in the cost of health benefits, which was up 4.8% y/y again in Q3, the same as in Q2 and less than half the pace of 2002 and 2003.
Compensation costs also eased for state and local government workers. This group saw a rise of 0.8% in Q3, less than 1.1% in Q2 and 1.3% in Q1 and the lowest since Q1 2006. The move was in benefits, which rose "only" 0.7% in Q3, following 1.7% in Q2 and 2.1% in Q1. Wages and salaries actually picked up in Q3 to 1.0% from 0.8% in Q2.
ECI- Private Industry Workers | 3Q | 2Q | 1Q | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Compensation | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% |
Wages & Salaries | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% |
Benefit Costs | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.8% |
ECI- State & Local Government Workers | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% |