Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller October 18, 2007
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped 28,000 to 337,000 last week and reversed all of the improvement of the prior five weeks.
The latest figure covers the survey period for October nonfarm payrolls and claims rose 24,000 (7.7%) from the September period.
The rise by far exceeded Consensus expectations for a gain to 313,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose sharply to 316,500 (1.9% y/y).
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose for the second week in the last five but it did not reverse the declines during the prior two.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 1.9%, off the peaks in August of 2.0% held for two consecutive weeks at month- end.
The latest Beige Book covering regional economic activity from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/13/07 | 10/06/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 337 | 309 | 9.4% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,534 | 3.7% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |