Recent Updates
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail and Wholesale Trade (Mar)
- Macao: MICE Industry (Q1)
- UK: Average Precipitation, Motor Vehicle Production (Apr)
- Serbia: Bank Claims, Banking Survey (Apr)
- Italy: ISTAT Business & Consumer Survey (May-Press)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Robert Brusca September 20, 2007
The CBI survey presents its data in net balance form like the Philadelphia Fed survey and NFIB survey. Values above unity denote increases, below unity they show declines. The ratings are about the breadth of the trend rather that the strength, although strength is usually inferred from breadth. The reading this month shows that orders are still rising but that the breadth of the reading is diminishing. More broadly the chart on the left shows that the trend toward narrowing gains is in place over long and short horizons. Export orders are on the decline; we have previously seen weakening in German orders for July and in other EMU countries. Output for the moment is holding up and is not reflecting any of the weakness in order trends. Prices are still showing upward pressure with a net positive reading of 16 in the current month but that is barely changed since the 12-month average is +17. Still UK inflation data have been good and the prospects for inflation are considered excellent.
Reported: | Sep-07 | Aug-07 | Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 12Mo Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
Total Orders | 6 | 9 | -6 | 8 | 0 | 94% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
Export Orders | -2 | -3 | -8 | 0 | -4 | 91% | 3 | -50 | 53 |
Stocks: Final Goods | 7 | 9 | 6 | -2 | 9 | 32% | 26 | -2 | 28 |
Output Volume: Next 3M | 17 | 13 | 10 | 25 | 16 | 80% | 28 | -28 | 56 |
Avg Prices 4 Next 3M | 16 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 84% | 25 | -30 | 55 |