Recent Updates
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Tom Moeller September 18, 2007
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) fell 9.1% m/m to another lowest level since early 1991. The index fell to 20 in September, 49% below the high this past February. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
The index fell across the country but was weakest in the West, down 18.2% m/m.
During the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the y/y change in the Composite Index and the change in single family housing starts.
The sub-index from the NAHB for current sales also fell 9.1%, a full 50% below the February high.
The sub-index covering prospective sales in the next six months dropped 16.1% m/m, 51% off the high.
Traffic of prospective home buyers was unchanged m/m, down only 45% from the February high.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions good than poor.
Visit the National Association of Home Builders.
The statement from the latest FOMC meeting, where the target for the federal funds rate was cut by 50 basis points to 4 3/4 percent, is available here.
Nat'l Association of Home Builders | September | August | Sept. '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index | 20 | 22 | 33 | 42 | 67 | 68 |