Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller September 6, 2007
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply last week and more than reversed the prior week's large increase. Claims for the week ending 8/30 fell 19,000 to 318,000. Consensus expectations were for 328,000 claims.
The prior week's rise of 12,000 had raised fears in the market that recent gains in the labor market would slow.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 325,750 (2.9% y/y), its highest level since April.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 25,000 after a downwardly revised 7,000 increase during the prior week. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment increased to 2.0%.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic activity is available here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/30/07 | 08/23/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 318 | 337 | 1.0% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,359 | 5.3% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |