Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly last week, back to the level initially reported for the prior period. Claims for the week ending 8/18 fell to 322,000 from 324,000 during the week ended 8/11. Consensus expectations were for 320,000 claims in the latest week.

A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The latest figure is for the survey period for nonfarm payrolls due for release on September 7th. Claims rose 6.3% from the July period. A 7.1% decline in July claims was associated with the below average 92,000 increase in payrolls.

The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 317,750 (0.3% y/y), its highest level since early July.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 16,000 after a downwardly revised 6,000 increase during the prior week. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%.

The Minimum Wage and the Labor Market from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.