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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller CPI Total 0.1%, Core Rose 0.2%August 15, 2007
In July, the consumer price index (CPI-U) rose an expected 0.1%. The 0.2% rise in prices less food & energy also was in line with expectations and equaled the average monthly increase so far this year.
The year to year gain in core consumer prices of just under 2.2% was its lowest since last September.
Core goods prices rose 0.1%, the first increase in five months. A 0.4% (-0.3% y/y) rise in apparel prices was the first increase in five months and it was accompanied by a 0.7% rise in the prices of used motor vehicles (-4.3% y/y). New vehicle prices were unchanged (-1.1% y/y) for the fourth month this year. A 0.3% (2.7% y/y) increase in appliance prices was offset by a 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) decline in furniture & bedding costs.These detailed series are available in Haver's CPIDATA data base.
Core services prices rose 0.3% (3.4% y/y) for the fourth consecutive month. Shelter prices rose just 0.2% (3.6% y/y) as the owner's equivalent rent series rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y). Medical care services prices rose a firm 0.6% (5.4% y/y) but public transportation prices fell 0.1% (-0.7% y/y). Tuition costs rose 0.5% (5.5% y/y), however, information technology & hardware prices fell 0.7% (-16.9% y/y).
Energy prices fell 1.0% (+1.0% y/y due to the 1.7% (-1.1%) flop in gasoline prices. So far in August gas prices have fallen another 5.4% from the July average to $2.77 per gallon. Fuel oil prices rose 3.4% (1.6% y/y) last month but natural gas & electricity prices fell 0.5% (+3.8% y/y).
Food & beverage prices rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) but prices for meats, poultry & fish fell 0.4% (+6.3% y/y).
The chained CPI, which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases, fell 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) and the core figure was unchanged (1.8% y/y) for the third consecutive month.
Are Global Prices Converging or Diverging? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Consumer Price Index | July | June | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | 0.2% | 0.5% | -0.9% |
Services less Energy | 0.3% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Energy | -1.0% | -0.5% | 1.0% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 10.8% |
Food & Beverages | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.4% |
Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |