Recent Updates
- Finland: Tourism Statistics (Apr)
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- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 3, 2007
The non-manufacturing sector Business Activity Index for July fell back to 55.8 from an unrevised 60.7 during the prior month according to the Institute for Supply Management.
Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 46% correlation between the level of the Business Activity Index and the Q/Q change in real GDP for services plus construction.
The employment sub index also fell to 51.7 from the high of 55.0 in June. Since the series' inception in 1997 there has been a 56% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.
The new orders index also fell m/m to 52.8 from 56.9 in June, down for the second month in a row but the latest still indicates growth in new orders.
Pricing power also slipped for the second month, but by a hard 4.2 points to 61.3, the lowest level since February. Since inception eight years ago, there has been a 70% correlation between the price index and the y/y change in the GDP services chain price index.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates back to July 1997.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components..
ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | July | June | July '06 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Activity Index | 55.8 | 60.7 | 55.7 | 58.0 | 60.2 | 62.5 |
Prices Index | 61.3 | 65.5 | 72.1 | 65.2 | 68.0 | 68.8 |