Recent Updates
- Thailand: Tourism Statistics (Apr)
- France: INSEE Monthly Household Survey (May)
- Japan: Kansai Airports Statistics (Apr)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Climate Survey (May)
- Euro area: ACEA Commercial Vehicle Registrations (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca July 31, 2007
French household confidence stumbled by three points taking the aggregate reading to its lowest point since April of this year. The overall index resides near mid range among all values since 1990. Expected improvement in living standards and drops in unemployment are two of the factors boosting this index. Consumers say they have the ability to save over the next 12 months and that is an extremely strong response on their part, in the top 7 percent of this historic range. Consumers rate the times as slightly more favorable for spending than they did last month with a net response of -4 compared to -6, a value that ranks in about the top third of its range. Still, consumers rate their current financial situation as below average in only about the 42nd percentile of its range. That is a slippage from the 52nd percentile over the past 12 months; for the next 12 months, consumers expect an improvement putting their response in the 63rd percentile of its range near the upper third.
On balance, the responses by the French consumers are showing slippage. One of the main drivers holding things in place is the improvement that consumers have seen and continue to expect in unemployment. Consumers remain upbeat that their financial situation is going to improve despite this months slippage in the overall index.
Since Jan 1990 | Since Jan 1990 | |||||||||
Jul-07 | Jun-07 | May-07 | Apr-07 | Percentile | Rank | Max | Min | Range | Mean | |
Household Confidence | -15 | -12 | -13 | -20 | 54.5 | 51 | 5 | -39 | 44 | -21 |
Living Standards | ||||||||||
past 12-Mos | -45 | -45 | -49 | -55 | 39.5 | 60 | 1 | -75 | 76 | -50 |
Next 12-Mos | -9 | -3 | 0 | -16 | 71.4 | 33 | 7 | -49 | 56 | -25 |
Unemployment: Next 12 | -9 | -9 | -12 | 4 | 16.2 | 193 | 84 | -27 | 111 | 40 |
Price Developments | ||||||||||
Past 12-Mos | -2 | -7 | -4 | 0 | 69.3 | 58 | 29 | -72 | 101 | -32 |
Next 12-Mos | -28 | -30 | -43 | -35 | 35.2 | 42 | 31 | -60 | 91 | -34 |
Savings | ||||||||||
Favorable to save | 32 | 34 | 30 | 26 | 44.3 | 162 | 66 | 5 | 61 | 43 |
Ability to save Next 12 | -4 | -4 | -2 | -9 | 94.4 | 3 | -2 | -38 | 36 | -20 |
Spending | ||||||||||
Favorable for major purchase | -4 | -6 | -9 | -12 | 67.8 | 43 | 15 | -44 | 59 | -14 |
Financial Situation | ||||||||||
Current | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 42.9 | 79 | 26 | 5 | 21 | 14 |
Past 12-Mos | -14 | -11 | -15 | -18 | 52.2 | 83 | -3 | -26 | 23 | -14 |
Next 12-Mos | -1 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 63.0 | 86 | 9 | -18 | 27 | -2 |
Number of observations in the period | 208 |