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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller July 27, 2007
U.S. real GDP grew 3.4% (AR) last quarter. It was both the fastest growth since 1Q06 and exceeded Consensus expectations for a 3.2% rise.
The estimates released today reflect the annual revision to the national income & product accounts (NIPAs), beginning with the estimates for the first quarter of 2004. The release includes the revised quarterly estimates of GDP, corporate profits, and personal income. In general, real GDP growth was revised down as price inflation was revised up.
Growth in final sales to domestic purchasers
held about steady with 1Q at 1.7%. Growth in residential investment, however, collapsed for the fifth straight quarter. Perhaps showing some sign of reaching a bottom, the 9.2% annual rate of decline in housing during 2Q was roughly half the shortfalls during the prior year. Growth in personal consumption expenditures also moderated to a 1.3% (2.9% y/y) rate of growth versus an average 3.4% during each of the prior five quarters. Picking up the slack was a 2.3% (0.1% y/y) advance in business fixed investment in equipment & software, the firmest in three quarters, and a 22.2% (11.5% y/y) jump in business investment in structures. Also rising quickly were government purchases with a 4.3% (2.0% y/y) rise after a 0.5% 1Q decline.An improved net export deficit added 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth. It occurred as exports boomed 6.4% (6.8% y/y) while imports fell 2.6% (+2.0% y/y).
The GDP chain price index rose 2.7% versus expectations for a 3.4% rate of gain. Growth in the PCE chain price index rose to 4.3% (2.3% y/y) due to a 10.0% jump in nondurables boosted by higher fuel costs. Less food & energy the PCE chain price index grew 1.4% (2.0% y/y), its slowest rate of increase since 2003.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 2Q 2007 | 1Q 2007 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 3.4% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% |
Inventory Effect | 0.2% | -0.7% | -0.7% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% |
Final Sales | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
Foreign Trade Effect | 1.6% | -0.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.5% |
Domestic Final Demand | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% |