Recent Updates
- Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Sales (Apr)
- Malaysia: House Price Index by State (Q1)
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Robert Brusca June 29, 2007
Personal income +0.4% in May.
Real PCE spending is up by just 01% in May as services spending falls by 0.1%.
Core PCE +0.1% and +1.9% Yr/Yr.
Consumption has a moderate contribution to growth in Q2 advancing by just 1.6% in the quarter after its weak performance in May (see far right-hand column in table). The 0.5% gain in the overall PCE hit spending hard, reducing it.
Real disposable personal income is falling in Q2 down by 1.5%.
Core inflation continues lower
much like with CPI.
Inflation took a large bite out of nominal spending trends this month. Previously Q2 spending was on a much stronger track. On top of that, current dollar spending was weaker than expected, posting at a gain of 0.5%. That was made worse when translated into real terms by the 0.5% hike in the overall PCE deflator. As a result real spending was left with a gain of just 0.1% reducing its growth in Q2 to just 1.6%. (SAAR). The jump in the deflator also cut real disposable personal income down and it is now falling in the quarter as well as falling by 0.1% in the month. The saving rate continues negative and shows no sign of rising.
Perhaps the most surprising development in the report is the drop in services spending. While it spurted in April it had also fallen sharply in May. Services spending has now dropped in two of the past three months and is growing at just an annual rate of 0.7% over those three months. This is very weak for a sector that supplies the bulk of our employment. This weakness is the most troubling thing in this report.
The core deflator is, however, well behaved and the Fed will be happy with its trend. At 2.9% it is now inside the Feds comfort zone and the CPI is well inside of its zone as well.
Percentage Changes At Annualized Rates: Various Horizons | |||||
Inflation-adjusted | 1-Mo:AR | 3-Mos | 6-Mos | One Year | Q2/Q1 |
Consumption | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
Goods | 3.7% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 0.3% |
Durable Goods | 7.0% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
Nondurable Goods | 2.0% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | -0.4% |
Services | -1.0% | 0.7% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
Consumer Income | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Real DPI | -1.1% | -1.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | -1.5% |
Per Capita | -2.0% | -2.4% | 0.7% | 2.4% | |
Memo: | May.07 | 3-Mos | 6-Mos | One-Year | -- |
Savings Rate (Pct) | -1.4 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -- |
113% | 113% | 100% | 116% | 111% | 108% | 104% | 111% |
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