Recent Updates
- US: Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey (May)
- US: Pending Home Sales Index (Apr)
- US: GDP and Corporate Profits (Q1, 2nd release)
- Canada: Retail Trade, Payroll Employment (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Dips in May But Remains Strong
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index declined to 23 in May...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply in April
Home buying remains under pressure...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Eased Slightly in the Latest Week
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended May 21 were 210,000 (-52.4% y/y)...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Increase Modestly in April
Manufacturers' new orders for durable goods increased 0.4% during April (12.2% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Carol Stone June 29, 2007
New construction put-in-place surged by 0.9% in May, following 0.2% in April and 0.1% in March. This was the best performance since February 2006 and compared with Action Economics' forecast survey that called for just 0.1%. This month's report includes annual revisions of the construction data; besides the usual seasonal adjustment changes, a new sampling procedure is being used for public construction projects. Other alterations were made. As seen in the first graph, the net result is a downward shift in construction spending in the most recent months, with April lower by 2%, although the peak in early 2006 is now seen to be somewhat higher than before.
Residential building continued its contraction, although May's 0.8% decrease and April's -0.4% were not as bad as many recent months. This sector has declined continuously beginning in March 2006 and the monthly shrinkage has averaged 1.6%. So, indeed, April and May definitely look "less bad" with their smaller losses. Among types of residential construction, multi-family eked out a 0.3% increase in May and home improvements were flat after a 0.9% rise in April. These helped steady the sector even as single-family home construction weakened somewhat to a 1.4% decline after two smaller monthly reductions.
Private nonresidential and public construction both had impressive gains in May: 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively. And both have been strong for some time. Public construction has been up in 7 of the last 8 months, particularly at the state and local level. Private nonresidential has seen only 1 decrease since the middle of 2005. The wide range of building and structure types and uses probably helps this latter strength. Office building, for example, has slowed, but it is offset currently by advances in amusements and recreation. The biggest year-to-year growth is in hotel construction, up a whopping 65% over May 2006. There have been uptrends recently in communications and transportation. Health care and education spending, by contrast, are slowing.
These construction put-in-place data are in Haver's "flagship" USECON database. "Old" data, prior to the latest annual revisions, is in USARC07. The forecast of the monthly headline number comes from ASREP1NA, which includes Action Economics weekly forecast surveys and each indicator's initially reported figure for each period.
Construction Put-in-Place | May 2007* | Apr 2007* | Mar 2007* | Year/ Year | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -3.2 | 5.3 | 10.6 | 11.1 |
Former | -- | 0.1 | 0.6 | -- | 4.7 | 10.5 | 11.6 |
Private Residential | -0.8 | -0.4 | -1.3 | -17.7 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 18.7 |
Private Nonresidential | 2.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.2 | 15.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 |
Public | 2.2 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 12.8 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 1.9 |