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Economy in Brief

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Higher
by Tom Moeller June 21, 2007

Initial unemployment insurance claims moved higher last week by 10,000 to 324,000 after increases of 2,000 and 3,000 during the prior two weeks.

During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.

The latest weekly figure covers the survey period for June payroll employment and claims rose 28,000 (9.5%) from the May survey period.

The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 314,500 (1.0% y/y).

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased 39,000 following a 46,000 decline during the week prior.

The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's beensince February.

What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/16/07 06/07 Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Initial Claims 324 314 3.8% 313 331 343
 Continuing Claims -- 2,523 3.4% 2,459 2,662 2,924
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