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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller June 21, 2007
Initial unemployment insurance claims moved higher last week by 10,000 to 324,000 after increases of 2,000 and 3,000 during the prior two weeks.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 77% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The latest weekly figure covers the survey period for June payroll employment and claims rose 28,000 (9.5%) from the May survey period.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose slightly to 314,500 (1.0% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased 39,000 following a 46,000 decline during the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%, about where it's beensince February.
What Do Worker Flows Tell Us About Cyclical Fluctuations in Employment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia can be found here.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 06/16/07 | 06/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 324 | 314 | 3.8% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,523 | 3.4% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |