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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
| · The Euro area 13 PPI rose by 0.3% in February. Excluding energy the rise was 0.3% as well. Trends show that PPI inflation pressures are elevated. And while the PPI is not the main focus of ECB policy, the pressure on prices is widespread across main EU countries. The bank of England has even recently said it was going to look beyond headline inflation as legacy issues might damp that calculation in the coming months. Central banks are becoming more concerned about embedded inflation pressures. |
|---|
| M/M | SAAR | ||||
| Euro area 13 | Feb-07 | Jan-07 | 3-Mo | 6-MO | Yr/Yr |
| Total (Excl Construction) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| Excl Energy | 0.3% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.4% |
| Capital Goods | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| Intermediate & Capital Goods | 0.3% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% |
| Energy | 0.4% | -0.7% | -1.8% | -7.5% | 1.0% |
| Manufacturing | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.3% | -0.4% | 2.5% |
| Germany | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2.8% |
| Excl Energy | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| France | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% | -0.7% | 2.0% |
| Excl Energy | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% |
| Italy | 0.4% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| Excl Energy | 0.3% | 0.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% |
| UK | -0.8% | -1.4% | -6.7% | 1.4% | -1.4% |
| Excl Energy | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% |
| Euro area 13 Harmonized PPI excl Construction. | |||||
| The EA 13 countries are Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain | |||||
| 6COLSPAN | |||||
by Robert Brusca April 3, 2007
Trend across categories and countries do not show a steadily accelerating inflation rate that central banks would clearly abhor. But they do show that pressures that had dissipated have re-emerged in the 3-month inflation rates. Excluding energy, inflation trends across the main countries show the same tendency except in Germany and in France where the pace of PPI ex-energy inflation is staying fairly constant, just above the 2% pace.
The headline inflation rate is moving steadily lower, but ex-energy inflation is considerably more stubborn around 3.5%, well above the ECB ceiling rate of 2% (for the HICP).
