Recent Updates
- Hong Kong: Movements of Aircraft, Passenger and Freight (Apr)
- US: Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Mar), IP & Capacity Util, Adv Retail Sales (Apr)
- US: NAHB\Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (Mar)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Apr)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Carol Stone March 16, 2007
There are 86,400 seconds in a day: 24 hours x 60 minutes x 60 seconds. In February, according to the Oil Market Intelligence publication of industry consulting firm Energy Intelligence, the world consumed 87,069 million barrels of petroleum products, a new monthly record. That amount equals 1,007 barrels every second. Haver carries the daily average demand information in its OMI database, offered in partnership with Energy Intelligence. The idea for this time calculation is not ours, though. It comes from an investment consultant in the field, Peter Tertzakian, author of a book published last year titled, appropriately enough, "A Thousand Barrels a Second".
February's daily oil consumption for the total world was up 3.4 million barrels from January (4.1%), although February demand is frequently high, and this was just 1.5% above February 2006. A notable part of the increase came in the US, where demand was 21.6 million barrels daily, 5.4% more than a year ago. The US experience is clearly a spike and as with other economic data for the month -- jobs in the construction industry and retail sales, for examples -- was likely related to the swing to unusually cold weather, particularly compared with mild February weather last year.
Even with this February rise, the US share of world oil consumption is no higher than it has been running over the last couple of years: just under 25%. These data illustrate well what we've heard more casually elsewhere: the significant growth in oil consumption is coming from developing regions of the world. For instance, in China, the last 12 months' average has been 7.1 million barrels daily, 6.2% ahead of the 12 months ended February 2006.
From the third graph, we can see that the US share of the world total over a longer period, since 2000, has actually declined. In dramatic contrast, the OMI grouping called "developing countries"* has gained share. From 26.4% in 2002, those countries expanded to 28.0% in 2006.
These graphs illustrate some upcoming innovations in Haver's DLXVG3 software. In the Chinese example, we were able to take a percent change in a moving average, utilizing a new "nested function" capability. In the market share graph, we were able to make two separate calculations involving three different series. Elsewhere this past week in several of Robert Brusca's articles, you have seen three or even four series on a single graph. These new features will be available to clients soon and we're very excited about them.
Daily Average Oil Demand: Thousand Barrels | Feb 2007 | Jan 2007 | Feb 2006 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total World | 87,069 | 83,653 | 85,796 | 84,475 | 83,838 | 82,287 |
Yr/Yr % Change | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.3 |
United States | 21,632 | 20,618 | 20,518 | 20,768 | 20,799 | 20,731 |
China | 7,276 | 7,222 | 7,107 | 7,074 | 6,675 | 6,367 |
Developing Countries* | 24,135 | 23,804 | 23,675 | 23,760 | 23,160 | 22,251 |