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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
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S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
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IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller February 13, 2007
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened unexpectedly in December to $61.2B from a little revised $58.1B during November. The figure compared to Consensus expectations for a deficit of $59.6B. For the year, the trade deficit deepened to a record $763.5B.
Total exports rose 0.6% after an upwardly revised 1.1% gain in November. Export of non-auto consumer goods rose 1.2% for the third straight strong increase, and for the year rose 11.7%. Capital goods, however, slipped 0.2% in December though the firm 14.2% for the year benefited from a 16.9% rise in advanced technology goods and a 40.0% surge in complete civilian aircraft exports.
Imports of nonpetroleum products rose 1.6% (6.8% y/y) and for the year rose 9.2%. Capital goods imports slipped 0.7% (+7.6% y/y) and for the year rose 10.4% while imports of nonauto consumer goods jumped 2.0% (13.4% y/y) while posting an 8.8% gain for the year. Imports of advanced technology products fell 7.2% (+7.6% y/y) and for the year gained 12.0%.
The value of petroleum product imports rose 7.6% (-2.3% y/y) as the price of Brent crude oil rose to $62.98 but the quantity of crude oil imports fell 5.1% (-6.6% y/y).
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China improved m/m to $19.0B but for the year deepened to $232.5B from $201.5B in 2005. The balance of goods trade with the newly industrialized Asian improved to a $1.0 surplus, the first surplus in ten year and for the year the deficit narrowed to $11.8B from $15.8B in 2005).
Disentangling the Wealth Effect: Some International Evidence from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
How Wages Change: Micro Evidence from the International Wage Flexibility Project from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Foreign Trade | December | November | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit | $61.2B | $58.1B | $64.2B (12/05) |
$763.5 | $716.7B | $611.3B |
Exports - Goods & Services | 0.6% | 1.1% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.7% | 13.4% |
Imports - Goods & Services | 2.1% | 0.3% | 5.6% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 16.7% |