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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone February 7, 2007
European industry is trying hard to grow and some sectors are more successful than others, according to data for December 2006 reported today by various statistical agencies. German production fell by 0.7% after a 1.8% surge in November. Its growth has moderated since August, but analysts were surprised by today's drop, having projected a gain for the month of about 0.5%. The VAT went up on January 1, so activity was expected to be strong through the end of 2006, but it appears to have tailed off earlier. Even so, industrial output for 2006 as a whole was up 6.1%, the strongest since the tech boom period in 2000.
In the UK, basic manufacturing has done fairly well in 2006, with that sector's production index up 2.4% from a year ago (based on seasonally adjusted data) and the year total up 1.3% from 2005, more than reversing a decline in 2005. Machinery, especially electrical equipment, was the strongest segment. In Britain, mining is in a decline as oil production decreases. This is weighing significantly on total industrial production, which was up in December by only 0.5% from December 2005 and actually down modestly for the year as a whole compared with 2005. That year, it fell 1.8%.
Denmark's industrial production fell back in December by 3 points (2.7%), but it enjoyed vigorous expansion through most of the rest of 2006. Wood products, clothing, oil refining and machinery all contributed sizable gains.
In Hungary, the number reported today is an advance estimate for a subset of the larger companies. Their production advanced 2.2% in December, bringing the gain to 11.2% for the year as a whole. Details for December will be reported on February 15. Through November, the breakdown looked similar to other neighboring nations, with strength greatest in machinery and equipment. In Hungary, rubber and plastics production has also been strong.
Sometimes, with all the publicity favoring manufacturing in Asia, one can get the impression that industry elsewhere is languishing. But as we see here, that is not so and especially for machinery, European companies are experiencing sizable growth.
IP: Indexes, 2000=100 | Dec 2006 | Nov 2006 | Oct 2006 | Year Ago | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Germany: Total IP* | 115.2 | 116.0 | 113.8 | 108.6 | 112.9 | 106.4 | 102.6 |
UK: Total IP** | 95.2 | 95.3 | 95.1 | 94.8 | 95.2 | 95.3 | 97.1 |
Manufacturing** | 99.3 | 99.1 | 98.9 | 97.0 | 98.5 | 97.2 | 98.3 |
Denmark: Total | 109 | 112 | 111 | 109 | 108 | 104 | 102 |
Hungary: Total, 5 or more Employees | 155.6 | 152.2 | 152.3 | 134.4 | 145.8 | 131.1 | 122.1 |