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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
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Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
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Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
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The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller January 23, 2007
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey indicated that chain store sales last week ticked 0.1% higher after no change the prior week.
The seeming lethargy of these gains, however, belies the greater strength of spending. Due to firm gains at the end of December and at the beginning of this month, the average level of chain store sales in January is up 3.0% from the prior month, a rate of increase not seen since 1999.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS also showed strength and rose 0.3% after a 0.8% increase the prior week.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 1/20/07 | 1/13/06 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Chain Store Sales | 480.9 | 480.2 | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% |
