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Economy in Brief
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
U.S. Import Prices Hold Steady While Export Prices Rise in April
Import prices held steady m/m (+12.0% y/y) in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
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Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller December 23, 2005
Consumer sentiment late in December added to gains earlier in the month, reported the University of Michigan. At 91.5 for the month as a whole, sentiment rose 12.1% from November which had risen 10.0% from October and beat Consensus expectations for an increase to 89.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
Consumers' expectations rose 15.2% on top of a 10.1% November gain to the highest level since July. Expected business conditions during the next year surged again and the index has improved more than two thirds since September. Expectations for personal finances also jumped. Adding to a small improvement the gains halted declines during the Summer.
The mean expected inflation rate for the next twelve months held steady m/m at 4.1% and was below the 5.5% expected in October & September.
The current conditions index rose 8.9% following a similar gain in November. The reading of personal finances surged 15.5% (6.3% y/y) and the reading of buying conditions for large household goods jumped for the second straight month (-0.6% y/y).Decline's in consumers' reading of gov't economic policy (-20.0% y/y) have stabilized during the last two months.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
University of Michigan | Dec | Dec (Prelim.) | Nov | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Sentiment | 91.5 | 88.7 | 81.6 | -5.8% | 95.2 | 87.6 | 89.6 |
Current Conditions | 109.1 | 106.6 | 100.2 | 2.2% | 105.6 | 97.2 | 97.5 |
Expectations | 80.2 | 77.3 | 69.6 | -11.8% | 88.5 | 81.4 | 84.6 |