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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 4, 2005
Non-farm payrolls rose 56,000 last month following a revised 8,000 worker decline in September, initially reported at down 35,000. In addition, the August rise in payrolls was revised lower to 148,000 from 211,000 reported earlier. Consensus expectations had been for a larger 122,000 increase in October.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the weaker-than-expected October number was due to softness in the labor market outside of hurricane-affected regions.
Construction employment rose 33,000 (3.8% y/y), about twice the average gain during the prior four months. October's strength at least partly reflected rebuilding following Hurricane Katrina.
Factory sector payrolls increased 12,000 following a little revised 28,000 worker decline in September. Transportation equipment jobs increased 22,000, largely due to the return of 18,000 striking workers in the aerospace industry.
Payrolls in private service producing industries fell the same 3,000 (+1.7% y/y) as during September which was revised from -67,000. Retail jobs fell 5,400 (+0.7% y/y) and the September decline was lessened to 58,000, initially spotted at -88,000. The leisure & hospitality industries shed another 18,000 (+1.6% y/y) after a 63,000 decline in September, revised from -80,000.
Professional & business services jobs rose 12,000 (2.7% y/y) and financial sector jobs rose 22,000 (2.4% y/y).Education & health services jobs increased 11,000 (2.2% y/y).
Average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, more than double expectations. Factory sector earnings rose 0.7% (2.6% y/y) and private service sector earnings jumped 0.9% (3.5% y/y).
From the household survey, the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% versus expected stability at 5.1%. Employment jumped 214,000 (2.0% y/y) and the labor force fell 14,000 (+1.5% y/y).
Employment | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Payroll Employment | 56,000 | -8,000 | 1.4% | 1.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Manufacturing | 12,000 | -28,000 | -0.7% | -1.2% | -4.9% | -7.2% |
Average Weekly Hours | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 33.8 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% |
Unemployment Rate | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% |