Recent Updates
- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
- Turkey: Domestic Debt by Holder (APR)
- UK Regional: Northern Ireland: Mortgage Possession (Q1)
- UK Regional: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer by Region (May)
- North Macedonia: Broad Money, Other Depository Corporations'
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller November 2, 2005
According to the Autodata Corporation, US sales of light vehicles in October fell another 10.0% m/m to 14.75M under the weight of higher gasoline prices and lower consumer sentiment. The decline was the third in as many months and dropped sales to the lowest monthly level since 1998.
Consumer sentiment dropped 3.5% (-19.1% y/y) last month according to the University of Michigan which indicated that current buying conditions for vehicles was especially poor.
In October, US gasoline prices dropped 6.4% versus the September average but prices were up 35.9% versus last year at $2.72 per gallon.
Last month's skid in vehicle sales additionally reflected payback from the earlier success of discount pricing programs. The average of sales during the last six months has been 17.20M, up 2.0% from all of last year.
As of September, strong sales had lowered inventories of US autos to the lowest level since late 2001 (-17.9% y/y). At 1.61, the inventory to sales ratio was roughly half the level in January. Inventories of domestic & imported trucks also was down 10.2% y/y though increases in August & September left the level up versus 2002 and 2003.
Sales of US made cars & trucks fell 12.0% (-14.3% y/y). Domestic truck sales dropped 14.0% (-22.8% y/y) and car sales fell 9.3% (-0.9% y/y).
The decline in sales of imported cars & trucks was limited to a moderate 2.7% m/m (-8.6% y/y) as sales of imported trucks rose 4.9% (-12.9% y/y). Sales of imported autos fell 6.1% (-6.2% y/y).
Import's share of the US light vehicle market jumped m/m to 22.5%, the highest monthly level since 1990.
Oil Price Volatility and U.S. Macroeconomic Activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil. Units) | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 14.75 | 16.39 | -13.1% | 16.87 | 16.63 | 16.81 |
Autos | 7.32 | 7.99 | -2.6% | 7.49 | 7.62 | 8.07 |
Trucks | 7.42 | 8.40 | -21.4% | 9.37 | 9.01 | 8.74 |