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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 14, 2005
The consumer price index (CPI-U) was a bit stronger than Consensus expectations for a 0.9% rise last month. The 1.2% gain was the strongest for any month since 1980 and lifted the y/y increase to its strongest (4.7%) since 1991.
Higher energy prices continued to fuel the m/m increase and rose 12.0%, an all-time record. The 17.9% m/m rise in gasoline prices to an average $2.90 per gallon also was a record advance but prices have fallen slightly in October. Fuel oil prices also were strong, up 11.8% (46.0% y/y), while natural gas & electricity prices jumped 4.6% (13.5% y/y).
Prices less food & energy rose the same 0.1% as during the prior four months and again the gain was less than Consensus expectations for a 0.2% increase. Core goods prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices fell 0.1% (-0.7% y/y) and most household furnishings prices fell as well. New vehicle prices rose 0.4% (0.7% y/y) and tobacco prices rose 0.7% (5.6% y/y).
Core services prices rose 0.1% for the second consecutive month as shelter prices fell 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) offset by a 0.3% (4.4% y/y) gain in medical care services prices. Public transportation prices rose 0.1% (7.5% y/y) for the second month and school tuition costs jumped 0.7% (6.3% y/y).
The chained CPI which adjusts for shifts in the mix of consumer purchases rose 0.8% and less food & energy chain prices rose 0.2%.
Update on the U.S. Economy and Fiscal Outlook, a speech made yesterday by Federal Reserve Board Governor Mark W. Olson, is available here.
| Consumer Price Index | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% |
| Goods less Food & Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% | -0.9% | -2.0% | -1.1% |
| Services less Energy | 0.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% |
| Energy | 12.0% | 5.0% | 35.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | -5.9% |
| Food | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Chained CPI: Total (NSA) | 0.8% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Total less Food & Energy | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% |
