Recent Updates
- Sweden: Valueguard-KTH HOX House Prices (Apr), Capacity Utilization (Q3), Turnover Index (Mar)
- Philippines: International Reserves (Apr)
- Japan: Japan: Machinery Orders (Mar), Housing Credit, Loans for Equipment Funds (Q1), International Trade (Apr-Pelim)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 13, 2005
Higher oil prices caused the U.S. foreign trade deficit to deepen in August to $59.0B from a July deficit of $58.0B which was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a slightly deeper August deficit of $59.5B.
Imports of goods & services jumped 1.8%. Petroleum imports surged 8.7% (41.4% y/y) driven by a 7.4% (44.1% y/y) rise in the per barrel price of crude petroleum though in both September and in early October the price of Brent crude has fallen to $59.53/bbl. from the weekly August peak over $ 66.00/bbl.
Nonpetroleum goods imports rose 0.9% (8.0% y/y) in August against a 2.9% (12.7% y/y) rise in exports. Recent strength in exports shrank the nonpetroleum deficit to its narrowest since March.
Capital goods imports recovered 0.5% (10.2% y/y) following a 2.4% decline in July while a 0.3% (+8.8% y/y) decline in nonauto consumer goods followed a 1.9% July drop. Imports of advanced technology products jumped 1.6% (NSA, 8.4% y/y).
Total exports surged 1.7% after the modest 0.5% July up tick. Capital goods exports gained 3.8% (11.8% y/y) while exports of advanced technology products recovered some momentum after a July decline and rose 7.2% (NSA, 15.9% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods exports fell 0.2% (+9.4% y/y).
Services exports rose 0.7% (10.7% y/y). Private travel services fell 0.4% (+14.2% y/y) following a 2.0% July drop but "other" private services jumped 1.6% (5.3% y/y).
The US trade deficit with China deepened to a record $18.5B ($161.9B in 2004) as imports surged 5.1% (NSA, 23.8% y/y). The US trade deficit with Japan improved slightly to $6.6B ($75.6B in 2004) due to a 4.9% (NSA, 15.7% y/y) jump in exports. The monthly trade deficit with the Asian NICs was about unchanged at $1.2B ($21.9B in 2004) for the fourth consecutive month and the deficit with the European Union also was about unchanged at $11.3B ($109.3B in 2004).
U.S. Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade: A Net Measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
Foreign Trade | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trade Deficit | $59.0B | $58.0B | $54.2B (8/04) | $617.6B | $494.8B | $421.2B |
Exports - Goods & Services | 1.7% | 0.5% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 4.6% | -3.0% |
Imports - Goods & Services | 1.8% | -0.6% | 10.9% | 16.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% |