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- Macao: Visitor Arrivals (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller October 3, 2005
The Institute of Supply Management reported that the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector jumped unexpectedly to 59.4 from 53.6 in September. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 52.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 64% correlation between the level of the Composite Index and the three month growth in factory sector industrial production.
Each of the index's five components rose though the 7.4 point rise in new orders to a more than one year high and a like gain in production seemed noteworthy after earlier months' easing.
The rise in the inventories index to the second highest level of the year suggests that the destocking efforts of the prior five months are winding down. The vendor deliveries index increased to highest since last October.
The rate of factory sector job creation rose slightly though the index at 53.1 contrasts with recent government data that suggest job loss. During the last twenty years there has been a 67% correlation between the level of the ISM Employment Index and the three month growth in factory sector employment.
Pricing in the factory sector firmed even more to the highest since last October. The prices paid index rose to 78.0 on top of last month's increase.
Hurricane Katrina and the Employment Situation report for September 2005, to be released this Friday, from the U.S. Department of Labor is available here.
ISM Manufacturing Survey | Sept | Aug | Sept '04 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Index | 59.4 | 53.6 | 59.1 | 60.5 | 53.3 | 52.4 |
New Orders Index | 63.8 | 56.4 | 59.9 | 63.5 | 57.9 | 56.5 |
Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 78.0 | 62.5 | 76.0 | 79.8 | 59.6 | 57.6 |