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Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Despite the recent improvement in U.S. factory output, many industrial commodity prices have weakened...
U.K. Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller September 9, 2005
Import prices last month about matched Consensus expectations and jumped 1.3%, although July's gain was revised lower to 0.8% from 1.1% reported initially.
Petroleum prices surged another 7.1% on top of a downwardly revised 6.1% spike in July. So far in September, Brent crude oil prices have averaged $65.00 and yesterday traded at $63.79/bbl. versus an average $64.10 in August.
Import prices other than petroleum were unchanged following three consecutive months of 0.2% decline. The July decline was revised deeper from 0.1%. Prices for nonauto consumer goods fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) for the second month and capital goods prices were unchanged (-0.4% y/y). Computer, peripheral & semiconductor prices rose 0.1% (-6.0% y/y). Excluding computers capital goods prices fell 0.1% (2.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices slipped 0.1% as agricultural prices fell 0.6% (+6.6% y/y) and nonagricultural prices fell 0.1% (+2.7% y/y).
U.S. Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade: A Net Measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
The Beige Book covering U.S. regional economic conditions from the Federal Reserve Board can be found here.
Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Import - All Commodities | 1.3% | 0.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | -2.5% |
Petroleum | 7.1% | 6.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% | 21.0% | 3.0% |
Non-petroleum | 0.0% | -0.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.1% | -2.4% |
Export - All Commodities | -0.1% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | -1.0% |