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Economy in Brief
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
The NABE expects the economic expansion to continue through its third year...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to 0.47 during April...
IFO Registers Small Rebound on the Month
Germany's IFO index has rebounded on the month...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller August 31, 2005
2Q05 US real GDP growth was little revised at 3.3% (AR) as revisions to foreign trade and inventories roughly offset one another. Consensus expectations had been for 3.4% growth.
Operating corporate profits rose a firm 6.1% (17.7%) following a 5.6% gain during 1Q. The increase came despite a 2.2% decline (+9.1% y/y) in financial sector earnings and a modest 1.1% increase (10.6% y/y) increase in foreign earnings. US nonfinancial corporate sector earnings rose 11.9% (24.1% y/y), the strongest quarterly increase in three years.
The positive contribution to GDP growth from a shallower foreign trade deficit was lessened to 1.2 percentage points as import growth was revised to show a slight q/q increase rather than a 2.0% decline. Export growth was raised slightly to 13.2% (8.3% y/y).
The negative growth contribution from inventories was lessened and offset the trade revision, but the 2.0 percentage point drag still was the third in the last four quarters and was the largest since 2000.
Growth in domestic demand was reduced to 3.9%. Business fixed investment growth was notched down a bit to 8.4% (AR, 9.1% y/y) from 9.0% and growth in real PCE similarly was lowered to 3.0% (3.8% y/y) from 3.3%. Residential building growth of 9.8% (5.8% y/y) was unrevised.
The chain price index was unrevised at 2.4% and the chain price index for domestic final demand was lowered slightly to 3.1% (2.8% y/y).
The minutes to the latest meeting of the FOMC can be found here.
Chained 2000$, % AR | 2Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 (Advance) | 1Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Inventory Effect | -2.0% | -2.3% | 0.3% | -1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Final Sales | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Foreign Trade Effect | 1.2% | 1.6% | -0.4% | 0.1% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
Domestic Final Demand | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
Chained GDP Price Index | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |